There will be 8 million listeners of
HD Radio by 2010 according to research company Bridge Ratings, compared
with a guess of 54 million satellite radio subscribers. Bridge Ratings began with an assumption of 555,000 by the end of
this year. According to my sources, that's a total crock. HD Radio will have no where near 555,000 subs... more like
10,000 - 20,000. Where Bridge got their number, I have no idea. Forecasting technology take-up rates is a lot like
being a doctor in the 12th century - it's guesswork, razzledazzle, and saying what your patron wants to hear.Around November of last year, Michael Petricone, the VP of technology policy for the Consumer Electronics Association of America, testified before Congress on the subject of encryption in the HD Radio space. He said: "The rollout of terrestrial digital radio is well underway. Over 500 stations are broadcasting digitally, thousands of radios have already been sold; over 25,000 are forecast to be in the market by year end, with tens if not hundreds of thousands to follow in 2006...”
As my colleague Jim Griffin points out, if the number in 2005 were ten thousand, he would've said tens of thousands or over ten thousand, and if the number were close to ten thousand, he would have said it was almost ten thousand. Instead he used the phrase "thousands of radios have already been sold." He then says they will be followed by tens of thousands in 2006. Let's assume that the number at the end of 2005 was 5,000 - can you imagine even a tenfold increase in HD Radio sales? I can't, and I don't have enough drugs on hand to imagine Bridge Ratings' hundredfold increase, either.
1. When are they going to come out with the pocket HD radios? I am tired of American companies lagging behind the rest of the World.
Posted at 1:36PM on Mar 28th 2006 by Mr. Bruce Arkwright, Jr.